قياس وتحليل تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية في سعر الصرف الاسمي في تركيا للمدة (1990-2018)

Abstract

The exchange rate is considered one of the most important economic
variables, which plays an important role in the external economic
activities of each country in the field of trade, investment, or others. By
determining the most important factors that affect the Turkish lira's
exchange rate, as it is a function of changes in inflation rates, total
foreign debt, short-term interest rate, export value, foreign assets value,
total government spending or expenditure at current prices, and the
growth rate of gross debt product (GDP), and the value of imports. The
study used the ordinary least squares method to estimate the function of
the Turkish lira exchange rate, and that the applied study used unit root
tests to test whether the time series adopted in this study contain the unit
root, through Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, and that the Jarque test
was relied upon. - Bera) to test the normal distribution of the model, and
tests the quality of the model, including the correlation test between
second-order errors (LM) and the conditional autoregressive test for the
conditional variance of errors (ARCH). With the aim of identifying and
estimating a standard model to analyze the impact of the economic
variables of the study on the behavior of the Turkish lira exchange rate
function, in addition to making some proposals. The research came out
with a set of conclusions, including the vertical relationship between the
value of imports and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, and there is an
inverse relationship among the external debt, total spending, and the
growth rate of the domestic product with the exchange rate of the
Turkish lira.