أثر الصدمات النقدية في النمو الاقتصادي للأرجنتين للمدة 1980-2018

Abstract

This research aims at measureing and analyzeing the impact of
monetary shocks on the economic growth of the Argentine economy
during the period 1980-2018, based on the hypothesis that the impact of
monetary shocks is negative on the economic growth rate of the
Argentine economy and this effect is clear and significant in the short
term compared to the long-term, which allows to absorb the impact Cash
shocks. The research uses the descriptive approach along with the
standard quantitative approach to estimate and analyze the relationship
between the variables of the standard model, and estimate the impact of
monetary shocks on the economic growth of the sample. The research
has been divided into two aspects, the first are presents the theoretical
frameworks of the subject of monetary shocks as it contains the concept,
types and most important causes and models addressed to measure and
estimate, while the second aspect focused on the use of methods and
tests of the standard model for the analysis and measurement of the
relationship between the growth rate of GDP, which represented the
variable as money supply, inflation, exchange rate the stability of the
time series data as well as the co-integration test and the causality test
between the variables of the model were used, and then Using the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag Model (Ardl) and the error correction model.
The study concluded a set of results and proposals, the most important of
which is to confirm the relationship of negative and moral impact of
monetary shocks on the economic growth rates in Argentina during the
period 1980-2018.