التنبؤ بسرعة الرياح في ناحية بحركة -اربيل

باستخدام نماذج بوكس-جينكز

الملخص

The aim of research is to use the steps of analysis ond to clarify
them through using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA). Also, it aims at examining the suitability of the model
diagnosed in predicting.
Time series of wind speed is used weekly with an average of 182
observations, from 1/1/2008 to 28/6/2011. These observations are
analyzed via using (Box-Jenkins) models. Depending on the theoretical
models and comparing them to time servies of wind speed, the model
ARIMA (2,1,1) is chosen. However, the parameters of the adopted
model were insignificant; therefore, MSE, AIC, AICc, BIC criteria are
adopted in order to choose the best model.
The result show that ARIMA (0,1,1) model is the most suitable one
for it has the least values of the a formentioned four criteria.
Suitability tests are used to ensure the suitability of ARIMA (0,1,1)
model. Then, the latter is used to predict future time series. The
researcher notes that this model gives similar values for the predicted
peroids with trust peroids differences.