للتنبؤ بحجم العمليات القيصرية في مستشفى البتول في مدينة الموصل للعام 2002-2006BOX-JENKINSتوفيق احد نماذج

Abstract

Today Cesarean Operation is considered one of the most common and
widespread operation in obstetric hospitals especially the lower segment
operation. The increase use of this procedures became one of the most
important problems that need to study the size of this problem. The aim of
the study is to combine one of the models of BOX-JENKINS for time series
for Cesarean Section that take place in Al-Batool teaching hospital Between
2002-2006 which was equal to 19493 Cesarean Section. The data were
collected during 60 months in which the series were unstable. In this study,
we take the Cosine and lag1 differences of the data to make it stable around the variance and the mean. The present study shows that the suitable model
for this series were AR(1) model through drawing the autocorrelation and
the partial autocorrelation function. For more confidence of chosen model
according to BOX-JENKINS model, we calculate BIC(M) scale for all
models used to choose the best one using the most modern statistical
program MINITAB-13).